Response of Indonesia's Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Result of Changes in Exports, Imports, Rupiah/USD Exchange Rate, and External Debt for the First Quarter of 2008-Fourth Quarter of 2021

Authors

  • Yohan Yohan Tadulako University, Indonesia
  • Samuel Yulius Sir Tadulako University, Indonesia
  • Vera Sri Endah Cicilia Tadulako University, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.57235/jambuair.v2i1.128

Keywords:

Foreign Exchange Reserves, Exports, Imports, Rupiah/USD Exchange Rate, and External Debt.

Abstract

Foreign exchange reserves are an important indicator for a country in conducting international trade, as well as a benchmark against the strong weak economic fundamentals of a country. This study aims to: 1) Analyze the response of changes in Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves simultaneously as a result of changes in exports, imports, Rupiah/U$D exchange rates, and external debt for the first quarter of 2008 - fourth quarter of 2021, 2) Analyze the response of changes in Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves individually as a result of changes in exports, imports, Rupiah/U$D exchange rates, and external debt for the first quarter of 2008-fourth quarter of 2021. The methods used are autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH). The results of the study based on estimates with the GARCH model (1.1) show that together the variables of exports, imports, rupiah exchange rates, and foreign debt have a significant effect on reserves Indonesian foreign exchange. The results of the estimation with the GARCH model (1.1) can be concluded that the export variable has a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. Import variables have a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The rupiah exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, and the external debt variable has a positive and significant effect on the reserve variable. This research is still limited to the variables that are used as the basis for the research model, therefore it is necessary to consider information from the variable measurement of the number of Indonesian workers working abroad at various income levels, so that it can be known the role of Indonesian workers working abroad in increasing foreign exchange reserves.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Adams, C., & Boyer, R. S. (1986). Efficiency and a simple model of exchange-rate determination. Journal of International Money and Finance, 5(3), 285–302. https://doi.org/10.1016/0261-5606(86)90031-8

Ajija, S. R., Sari, D. W., Setianto, R. H., & Primanti, M. R. (2011). Cara Cerda Menguasai Eviews (E. Tanujaya, Ariyanto, A. Novianty, A. Rozano, D. J. Asmara, & D. Hasbiy (eds.)). Salemba Empat.

Ardianti, D. A. M. ., & Swara, W. . (2018). Pengaruh Ekspor Neto, Kurs, Pdb Dan Utang Luar Negeri Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia 1997-2016. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Unud, 7(6), 1199–1227. https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/eep/article/view/38747/24085

Dani1, S. C. R., Ismanto, B., & Sitorus, D. S. (2020). Pengaruh Ekspor Impor Dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Tahun 2000-2019. Ecodunamika (Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonom), 3(2), 21–28. https://ejournal.uksw.edu/ecodunamika/article/view/4049

Dianita S., D., & Zuhroh, I. (2018). Analisa Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Tahun 1990-2016. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 2(1), 119–131.

Gozali, I. (2009). Ekonometrika (Teori, Konsep, dan Aplikasi dengan SPSS 17). Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.

Greene, W. H. (2003). ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS Executive Editor : Rod Banister Managing Editor : Gladys Soto Assistant Editor : Marie McHale Editorial Assistant : Lisa Amato Senior Media Project Manager : Victoria Anderson Production Editor : Michael Reynolds (R. Banister, P. J. Boardman, G. Soto, M. McHale, & L. Amato (eds.)). Prentice Hall.

Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic_Econometrics_Gujarati.pdf (Fifth). The McGraw−Hill Companies.

Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic Econometrics (Fifth). McGraw Hill.

Hadi, H. (2001). Teori dan Kebijakan Perdagangan Ekonomi Internasional (Edisi Revi). Ghalia Indonesia.

Irawati, N. (2018). Pengaruh Ekspor Dan Impor Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Di Indonesia Periode 1990-2009. Calyptra: Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Universitas Surabaya, 7(2), 4281–4303. https://repository.unsri.ac.id/49428/

Juliansyah, H., Moulida, P., & Apridar, A. (2020). Analisis Faktor-faktor Yang Mempengaruhui Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Bukti (Kointegrasi dan Kausalitas). Jurnal Ekonomi Regional Unimal, 3(2), 32. https://doi.org/10.29103/jeru.v3i2.3204

Kamaludin, R. (1998). Pengantar Ekonomi Pembangunan. Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia.

Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2007). International Economics Theory and Policy (Eighth). Perason.

Nachrowi, N. D., & Usman, H. (2006). Pendekatan Populer dan Praktis Ekonometrika untuk Analisis Ekonomi dan Keuangan (Dilengkapi Teknik Analisis dan Pengolahan Data dengan SPSS dan Eviews) (A. D. Prayoga, Mardjono, & S. D. (eds.)). Lembaga Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia.

Nazir, M. (2005). Metode Penelitian. Ghalia Indonesia.

Putra, I. B. P. P., & Indrajaya, I. G. . (2013). Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, Utang Luar Negeri Dan Suku Bunga Kredit Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Tahun 1996-2011. E-Jurnal EP Unud, 2(11), 533–538.

Rahmawati, E. Y., Ismanto, B., & Sitorus, D. S. (2020). Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor dan Kurs Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Tahun 1990-2019. Jurnal Ecodunamika, 3(2), 1–12.

Rini, A. S., & Suguharti, L. (2016). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Cadangan Devisa Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan, 1(2), 88–104.

Rofi’ah, S. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Keterbukaan Ekonomi, Kurs Nilai Tukar Rupiah, dan Inflasi terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia (Triwulan 2004.I – Triwulan 2015.IV). Nuevos Sistemas de Comunicación e Información, 2013–2015.

Sitorus, N. H. (2020). Implikasi Guncangan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Cadangan Devisa, Suku Bunga dan Inflasi. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 9(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.23960/jep.v9i1.81

Sonia, A. P., & Setiawina, N. D. (2016). Pengaruh Kurs, JUB, dan Tingkat Inflasi Terhadap Ekspor, Impor, dan Cadangan Devisa Indonesia. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana, 5(10), 10–11.

Sugiyono. (2012). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R & D. Alfabeta.

Tambunan, T. (2000). Perdagangan Internasional dan Neraca Pembayaran. Pustaka LP3S.

Uli, L. B. (2016). Analisis Cadangan Devisa Indonesia. Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan Dan Pembangunan Daerah, 4(1), 15–24. https://media.neliti.com/media/publications/125764-ID-analisis-cadangan-devisa-indonesia.pdf

Widarjono, A. (2009). Ekonometrika (Pengantar dan Aplikasi) (Ketiga). Ekonesia.

Downloads

Published

2023-04-04

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 1 (2023): April 2023

Section

Articles

Citation Check

License

  1. Authors certify that the work reported here has not been published before and contains no materials the publication of which would violate any copyright or other personal or proprietary right of any person or entity.
  2. Authors dont transfer or license the copyright of publishing to JAMBU AIR: Journal of Accounting Management Business and International Research to publish the article in any media format, to share, to disseminate, to index, and to maximize the impact of the article in any databases.
  3. Authors hereby dont agree to transfer a copyright for publishing to JAMBU AIR: Journal of Accounting Management Business and International Research a Publisher of the manuscript. 
  4. Authors reserve the following: 
    1. all proprietary rights other than copyright such as patent rights; 
    2. the right to use all or part of this article in future works of our own such as in books and lectures;
    3. use for presentation in a meeting or conference and distributing copies to attendees; 
    4. use for internal training by author's company;
    5. distribution to colleagues for their research use;
    6. use in a subsequent compilation of the author's works;
    7. inclusion in a thesis or dissertation;
    8. reuse of portions or extracts from the article in other works (with full acknowledgement of final article);
    9. preparation of derivative works (other than commercial purposes) (with full acknowledgement of final article); and
    10. voluntary posting on open web sites operated by author or author’s institution for scholarly purposes, but it should follow the open access license of Creative Common CC BY-NC-SA License.