Dampak Fluktuasi Harga Internasional terhadap Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia

Authors

  • Dhea Yurike Silaban Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Gustina Natalia Togatorop Universitas Negeri Medan
  • May Sartika Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Dilli Salsa Fira Universitas Negeri Medan
  • Dwi Susanti Universitas Negeri Medan

Keywords:

Fluktuasi Harga Internasional, Ekspor Minyak Sawit, Nilai Tukar, PDB Negara Tujuan, Analisis Data Panel

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak fluktuasi harga internasional terhadap ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia dengan menggunakan data panel dari sepuluh negara tujuan utama periode 2014–2023. Metode analisis Fixed Effect Model (FEM) diterapkan untuk mengestimasi pengaruh harga internasional CPO, nilai tukar Rupiah/USD, dan PDB negara tujuan terhadap volume ekspor. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga internasional CPO berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap volume ekspor, di mana kenaikan harga justru menurunkan ekspor. Demikian pula, depresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah (peningkatan Kurs USD/IDR) berpengaruh negatif signifikan, bertentangan dengan ekspektasi teoritis, diduga akibat ketergantungan impor input produksi. Sementara itu, PDB negara tujuan berpengaruh positif signifikan, mencerminkan peran permintaan global. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa diperlukan pendekatan kebijakan holistik, termasuk stabilisasi pendapatan, pengurangan ketergantungan impor input, dan penguatan hubungan dagang dengan negara berpertumbuhan tinggi, untuk meningkatkan ketahanan ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia terhadap volatilitas global.

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Published

2026-04-16

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): April 2026

Section

Articles

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