Dampak Geopolitik Global Terhadap Stabilitas Nilai Tukar Rupiah
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.57235/jerumi.v4i1.8719Keywords:
Geopolitik Global, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Stabilitas Ekonomi, Studi Literatur, Ekonomi Internasional.Abstract
Globalisasi menyebabkan perekonomian Indonesia semakin terintegrasi dengan dinamika ekonomi internasional sehingga stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah menjadi rentan terhadap berbagai peristiwa geopolitik global. Konflik Rusia–Ukraina, perang dagang Amerika Serikat–Tiongkok, konflik di Timur Tengah, serta ketegangan kawasan Indo-Pasifik telah meningkatkan ketidakpastian ekonomi global yang berdampak pada arus modal, harga komoditas, dan pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah. Penelitian ini dilakukan karena masih terdapat perbedaan hasil penelitian mengenai faktor geopolitik yang paling dominan memengaruhi stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah. Penelitian bertujuan menganalisis bentuk-bentuk geopolitik global yang memengaruhi nilai tukar rupiah, mekanisme transmisinya terhadap perekonomian Indonesia, serta respons pemerintah dalam menjaga stabilitas rupiah. Penelitian menggunakan metode studi literatur dengan pendekatan kualitatif melalui analisis berbagai artikel ilmiah, buku, dan laporan lembaga internasional yang relevan. Metode ini dipilih karena mampu memberikan sintesis yang komprehensif terhadap berbagai temuan penelitian terdahulu mengenai hubungan geopolitik global dan nilai tukar rupiah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa geopolitik global memengaruhi stabilitas rupiah melalui peningkatan ketidakpastian pasar, arus modal keluar (capital outflow), penguatan dolar Amerika Serikat, kenaikan harga energi dan komoditas, serta perubahan sentimen investor. Selain itu, penguatan koordinasi kebijakan moneter dan fiskal menjadi langkah penting dalam menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar di tengah ketidakpastian global. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa faktor geopolitik merupakan salah satu determinan eksternal yang berpengaruh terhadap stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah sehingga diperlukan kebijakan ekonomi yang adaptif dan koordinatif untuk meningkatkan ketahanan ekonomi nasional. Penelitian selanjutnya disarankan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif atau metode campuran dengan data terbaru agar hubungan antara indikator geopolitik dan pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah dapat diukur secara lebih akurat.
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