The Effect of Food Commodity Price Fluctuations on Inflation in Bali Province

Authors

  • Ni Putu Depi Indah Sari Udayana University, Indonesia
  • I Gusti Agung Ayu Apsari Anandari Udayana University, Indonesia
  • I Wayan Sukadana Udayana University, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.57235/bima.v2i2.6635

Keywords:

Fluktuasi Harga Pangan, Inflasi, Model Koreksi Kesalahan Vektor, Strategi Komoditas

Abstract

Kajian ini menganalisis pengaruh fluktuasi harga komoditas pangan pada laju inflasi di Provinsi Bali. Kajian ini bertujuan mengetahui pengaruh harga komoditas pangan pada inflasi di Bali baik pada jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Kajian ini memakai metode VAR dan VECM dalam melakukan analisis kontribusi harga komoditas pangan pada inflasi di Provinsi Bali. Data yang dipakai pada kajian ini meliputi periode Januari 2019 hingga Desember 2023. Dalam hasil kajian memperlihatkan jika untuk jangka panjang, harga beras punya pengaruh signifikan pada inflasi. Tetapi, pada jangka pendek, tidak ada hubungan signifikan antar harga komoditas pangan dengan inflasi di Bali. Penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa Bali masih bergantung pada pasokan pangan dari daerah lain, khususnya Provinsi Jawa Timur. Oleh sebab itu, perlu memperkuat ketahanan pangan daerah sebagai instrumen utama pengendalian inflasi, agar Bali tidak selalu bergantung pada komoditas pangan dari daerah lain.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Apriyadi, R., & Hutajulu, D. (2020). Pengaruh harga komoditas pangan hewani asal ternak terhadap inflasi di Provinsi D.I. Yogyakarta. Jurnal Ecobisma, 7(2), 52–69.

Banerjee, I., Kumar, A., & Bhattacharyya, R. (2020). Examining the effect of COVID-19 on foreign exchange rate and stock market: An applied insight into the variable effects of lockdown on the Indian economy. 1–39.

Dao, M. C., Gourinchas, P. O., Leigh, D., & Mishra, P. (2024). Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020. Journal of Monetary Economics, 102, 45–60.

Fadlli, M. D. (2022a). The role of East Java as a trade hub for Eastern Indonesia. East Java Economic Journal, 6(1), 95–110.

Firdaus, M. (2011). Aplikasi ekonometrika untuk data panel dan time series. Bogor: IPB Press.

Ha, J., Ivanova, A., & Ohnsorge, F. (2019). Inflation concepts, evolution, and correlates. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8993.

Hadianto, A., & Setiawan, A. F. (2014). Food prices fluctuation and its impact to inflation in Banten Province. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian, Sumberdaya dan Lingkungan, 81–97.

Hasanah, N., Abadi, S., & Melani, A. (2025). Analisis efek fluktuasi harga komoditas pangan terhadap inflasi di Provinsi Kalimantan Utara. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Agroinfo Galuh, 12(1), 458–472.

Inogamov, S., & Leon-Gonzalez, R. (2024). Inflation comovement in emerging economies: The facts and impact of global prices. Journal of Asian Economics, 94, 101–120.

Kuma, B., & Gata, G. (2023). Factors affecting food price inflation in Ethiopia: An autoregressive distributed lag approach. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 12, 1–15.

Marpaung, B., Siregar, H., & Anggraeni, L. (2019). Analysis of El Niño-Niño impact and the price of food commodities on inflation. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 8, 1–20.

Meilaningsih, T., & Yuniastuti, W. (2022). East Java economic analysis on sectoral and regional linkages (inter-regional input-output analysis). East Java Economic Journal, 6(1), 81–94.

Pipit, P., Pranoto, Y. S., & Evahelda, E. (2019). Analisis volatilitas harga daging sapi di Provinsi Kepulauan Bangka Belitung. Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 3(3), 620–630.

Rahayu, P. I., Famalika, A., & Sihombing, R. (2021). Penerapan model vector autoregressive (VAR(2)) pada data inflasi di Provinsi Jawa Timur dan Bali. 1(1), 55–66.

Riyadh, M. I., Hendrawan, D., & Silalahi, J. M. (2018). Analisis pergerakan harga cabai dan bawang di Kota Medan. Kajian Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik, 4(1), 56–68.

Sri Ardiyanti, D., & Juliprijanto, W. (2020). Kontribusi harga komoditas pangan terhadap inflasi di Kota Magelang. Jurnal Paradigma Multidisipliner (JPM), 1(1), 51–64.

Ulussever, T., Ertuğrul, H. M., Kılıç Depren, S., Kartal, M. T., & Depren, Ö. (2023). Estimation of impacts of global factors on world food prices: A comparison of machine learning algorithms and time series econometric models. Foods MDPI, 12(4), 1–13.

Zulkarnain, R., & Ulfah, N. (2021). Linkages perekonomian Bali. In Seminar Nasional Official Statistics (pp. 223–234).

Downloads

Published

2025-08-05

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): Juli 2025

Section

Articles

Citation Check

License

  1. Authors certify that the work reported here has not been published before and contains no materials the publication of which would violate any copyright or other personal or proprietary right of any person or entity.
  2. Authors dont transfer or license the copyright of publishing to BIMA: Journal of Business Inflation Management and Accounting Research to publish the article in any media format, to share, to disseminate, to index, and to maximize the impact of the article in any databases.
  3. Authors hereby dont agree to transfer a copyright for publishing to BIMA: Journal of Business Inflation Management and Accounting a Publisher of the manuscript. 
  4. Authors reserve the following: 
    1. all proprietary rights other than copyright such as patent rights; 
    2. the right to use all or part of this article in future works of our own such as in books and lectures;
    3. use for presentation in a meeting or conference and distributing copies to attendees; 
    4. use for internal training by author's company;
    5. distribution to colleagues for their research use;
    6. use in a subsequent compilation of the author's works;
    7. inclusion in a thesis or dissertation;
    8. reuse of portions or extracts from the article in other works (with full acknowledgement of final article);
    9. preparation of derivative works (other than commercial purposes) (with full acknowledgement of final article); and
    10. voluntary posting on open web sites operated by author or author’s institution for scholarly purposes, but it should follow the open access license of Creative Common CC BY-NC License.